A CPMM opinion market that prices public attention between named figures, settled fully onchain. Built solo, end to end, with a classification pipeline running at low double-digit dollars a month. Live on Base since March 2026, about 60 days of continuous daily operation across six settlement cycles.

Surfaces the roughly seven actionable deals a week inside the 36-hour window the team has to act. It reverse-engineers deal criteria from the historical portfolio, scrapes federal and state credit sources nightly, and routes each deal through the Anthropic API with a written rationale. In production, running daily with no human in the sourcing loop.

Validated against a placebo arm of randomly permuted headlines to confirm the signal was real, not artifact. It cut crude forecast error 18% against the keyword baseline and lifted strategy Sharpe from 0.07 to 0.45. Handed off with a methodology document so the team could maintain it after the engagement closed.

Cross-language convergence between Chinese and English press flagged a CPI thesis ahead of the early-2026 print. Over four months it fired 12 high-confidence signals: 8 correct, 3 wrong, 1 expired. Kept private, live capital not pursued for compliance and visa reasons.

A five-layer agentic architecture wired into a channel I already live in. Built for daily use, not as a demo.

Designed for Arbitrum, settled weekly against Fastmarkets CIP with intraday marks from Shanghai Metals, Asian Metals, and Argus. It stays in the design portfolio, showing how I approach market structure and oracle design where no honest price feed exists yet.